The Week Before The World Ends
Back in August, I expressed concern over holding blue chip and groth stocks into late October, and recommended a protective liquidation of securities in late September- Early October. We are now seeing the market getting very rocky, and It's safe to say as we get closer to the elections that it will get even rockier. Nonetheless, there is always money to be made on the market, so lets look over a few possible plays.
NVCN- Technical weekly breakout, with a high of $0.8178. Closed at $0.785. Watching for continuation over $0.80 for this continued upward action. $0.88 is a very strong historical pivot to watch out for.
AMRS- Collaboration deal on Friday, and the price did not react much to the news. Monday is day 10 to hold above a dollar for compliance. If holds $1.00 on Monday, we may see the next leg up coming throughout the week. $1.20 is the big level to break for the movement to the next price channel of $1.20- $1.40.
AMCC- Good earnings Friday sent this up nicely. Closed near HOD. Could see a continuation upwards if $7.00 can hold as new support. A break of $7.20 will indicate strong upward momentum. 52W high $7.68.
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Sunday, October 30, 2016
Dividend Challenge Results!!!
Dividend Challenge Results
Monday 10/24
Bought (F) 82 shares at $12.10= $992.20.
Result
Total Dividend- 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
Total Liquid Cash- $7.80
Total Stock- $992.20
Unrealized gains/loss- +$7.38
Total Account- $1019.68 (+1.9%)
Tuesday 10/25
Sold (F) 82 shares at $12.10= $992.20.
Liquid Cash= $1000.00
Bought (MSB) 104 shares @ $9.60= $998.40
Result
Total Dividend- (F) 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
(MSB) 104 shares x $0.10= $10.40
Total Liquid Cash- $1.60
Total Stock- $998.40
Unrealized gains/loss- +$10.40
Total Account- $1033.10 (+3.3%)
Wednesday 10/26
Sold (MSB) 104 shares @ $9.55= $993.20
Liquid Cash= $994.80
Buy (DNP) 97 shares @ $10.21= $990.37
Result
Total Dividend- (F) 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
(MSB) 104 shares x $0.10= $10.40
(DNP) 97 shares x $0.065= $6.30
Total Liquid Cash- $2.83
Total Stock- $990.37
Unrealized gains/loss- +$3.88
Total Account- $1026.08 (+2.6%)
Thursday 10/27
Sold (DNP) 97 shares @ $10.20= $989.40
Liquid Cash= $992.23
Buy (WSR) 75 shares @ $13.10= $982.50
Result
Total Dividend- (F) 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
(MSB) 104 shares x $0.10= $10.40
(DNP) 97 shares x $0.065= $6.30
(WSR) 75 shares x $0.095= $7.12
Total Liquid Cash- $9.73
Total Stock- $982.50
Unrealized gains/loss- -$0.75
Total Account- $1027.60 (+2.7%)
Friday 10/27
Sold (WSR) 75 shares @ $13.10= $982.50
Liquid Cash= $992.23
Buy (TRGP) 21 shares @ $45.50= $955.50
Result
Total Dividend- (F) 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
(MSB) 104 shares x $0.10= $10.40
(DNP) 97 shares x $0.065= $6.30
(WSR) 75 shares x $0.095= $7.12
(TRGP) 21 shares x $0.91= $19.11
TOTAL DIVIDENDS= $55.23
Total Liquid Cash- $36.73
Total Stock- $955.50
Unrealized gains/loss- +$4.20
Total Account- $1051.66 (+5.1%)
Results pending sale of (TRGP) on Monday.
So my estimation of 5.71% for the week fell just a bit short, but we did overall see a 5.166% gain for the week just by playing dividends daily. Note that the dividends won't be liquid until next month, and currently we show a loss of $7.77 to total liquid cash. But the ends justify the means. Under a tight discipline, carefully planned limit sells, some intuition, and lots of DD; this method is a feasible means to make gains.
Monday 10/24
Bought (F) 82 shares at $12.10= $992.20.
Result
Total Dividend- 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
Total Liquid Cash- $7.80
Total Stock- $992.20
Unrealized gains/loss- +$7.38
Total Account- $1019.68 (+1.9%)
Tuesday 10/25
Sold (F) 82 shares at $12.10= $992.20.
Liquid Cash= $1000.00
Bought (MSB) 104 shares @ $9.60= $998.40
Result
Total Dividend- (F) 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
(MSB) 104 shares x $0.10= $10.40
Total Liquid Cash- $1.60
Total Stock- $998.40
Unrealized gains/loss- +$10.40
Total Account- $1033.10 (+3.3%)
Wednesday 10/26
Sold (MSB) 104 shares @ $9.55= $993.20
Liquid Cash= $994.80
Buy (DNP) 97 shares @ $10.21= $990.37
Result
Total Dividend- (F) 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
(MSB) 104 shares x $0.10= $10.40
(DNP) 97 shares x $0.065= $6.30
Total Liquid Cash- $2.83
Total Stock- $990.37
Unrealized gains/loss- +$3.88
Total Account- $1026.08 (+2.6%)
Thursday 10/27
Sold (DNP) 97 shares @ $10.20= $989.40
Liquid Cash= $992.23
Buy (WSR) 75 shares @ $13.10= $982.50
Result
Total Dividend- (F) 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
(MSB) 104 shares x $0.10= $10.40
(DNP) 97 shares x $0.065= $6.30
(WSR) 75 shares x $0.095= $7.12
Total Liquid Cash- $9.73
Total Stock- $982.50
Unrealized gains/loss- -$0.75
Total Account- $1027.60 (+2.7%)
Friday 10/27
Sold (WSR) 75 shares @ $13.10= $982.50
Liquid Cash= $992.23
Buy (TRGP) 21 shares @ $45.50= $955.50
Result
Total Dividend- (F) 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
(MSB) 104 shares x $0.10= $10.40
(DNP) 97 shares x $0.065= $6.30
(WSR) 75 shares x $0.095= $7.12
(TRGP) 21 shares x $0.91= $19.11
TOTAL DIVIDENDS= $55.23
Total Liquid Cash- $36.73
Total Stock- $955.50
Unrealized gains/loss- +$4.20
Total Account- $1051.66 (+5.1%)
Results pending sale of (TRGP) on Monday.
So my estimation of 5.71% for the week fell just a bit short, but we did overall see a 5.166% gain for the week just by playing dividends daily. Note that the dividends won't be liquid until next month, and currently we show a loss of $7.77 to total liquid cash. But the ends justify the means. Under a tight discipline, carefully planned limit sells, some intuition, and lots of DD; this method is a feasible means to make gains.
Monday, October 24, 2016
WL 10/25/16
Continuing on the low float pump theme, we have 2 tickers in view; SAEX and CDRS.
SAEX- News after hours along with a huge run up of 48%. This is a previous nova that was able to reach $70 before dumping. Hard to tell what this will do, what I do know is that we need to see the $12 pivot break early to see any epic action.
CDRS- Being pumped at the end of the day yesterday on no news. A 1m float, but I'm not convinced that this will continue action upwards. I would consider a short position if this begins to show a definitive dump.
BAS- Filed CH 11 Monday PM, and dropped heavily on the news. Means its prime for the next day dead cat bounce!
Dividend Challenge Day 1- Bought (F) 82 shares at $12.10= $992.20
Closed $12.19 and will sell anywhere $12.10 or above tomorrow.
Total Dividend- 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
Total Liquid Cash- $7.80
Total Stock- $992.20
Unrealized gains/loss- +$7.38
Total Account- $1019.68 (+1.9%)
will keep you all updated!
SAEX- News after hours along with a huge run up of 48%. This is a previous nova that was able to reach $70 before dumping. Hard to tell what this will do, what I do know is that we need to see the $12 pivot break early to see any epic action.
CDRS- Being pumped at the end of the day yesterday on no news. A 1m float, but I'm not convinced that this will continue action upwards. I would consider a short position if this begins to show a definitive dump.
BAS- Filed CH 11 Monday PM, and dropped heavily on the news. Means its prime for the next day dead cat bounce!
Dividend Challenge Day 1- Bought (F) 82 shares at $12.10= $992.20
Closed $12.19 and will sell anywhere $12.10 or above tomorrow.
Total Dividend- 82 shares x $0.15= $12.30
Total Liquid Cash- $7.80
Total Stock- $992.20
Unrealized gains/loss- +$7.38
Total Account- $1019.68 (+1.9%)
will keep you all updated!
The Dividend Game: How to Play Dividend Stocks Without Going Long
So I'm developing a theory on how to best play dividend stocks on a short term scale. It may prove to be a lucrative way to safely invest for short periods of time if done correctly. But before we dive into this theory, lets go over a few things first.
What Is A Dividend?
A dividend is a distribution of a portion of a company's earnings to a class of its shareholders. Dividends can be in the form of cash, stock, and less commonly, property. Most stable companies offer dividends to shareholders. 3
When is the cutoff to get in for a Dividend?
The trickiest part of dividends is to best understand when the latest possible time to enter the security is. There are several dates that are provided when looking at a stocks dividend: The Declaration Date, The Ex/Effective Date, The Record Date, and The Payment Date.
Declaration Date: The date that the company announced their upcoming dividend.
Ex/Effective Date: The deadline date to own shares to register for the dividend.
Record Date: The date the company uses to determine it's shareholders or "holders on record".
Payment Date: The date a declared dividend is scheduled to be paid. 2
Now what is important to note is that stocks take 3 days to settle. That means you need to buy a stock three days before the record date in order to qualify for the dividend. Further complicating matters, the ex-date falls two trading days before the date by which you need to be a shareholder of record. We've established that the must-own date falls three days before the record date, so simple subtraction means that you must buy a stock one day before it goes ex-dividend. 1
With that in mind, an investor can technically buy a stock at 3:59 p.m. EST on the day before the Ex-div date and sell it at 9:31 a.m. EST the next morning and still receive the dividend in their account. 1
Why Doesn't Everyone Do This?
Now with the way the process was just laid out, you may be asking why everyone doesn't just use this to their advantage. There is a catch. Stocks typically auto-depreciate on the ex-div date by the amount of the dividend. This is done to deter people from abusing this system.
But with careful planning it may be possible to play this system after all.
For this theory, I have gone through the list of every stock that is paying dividends on the week of 10/24-10/28 (The week this was written) and looked into its price action, dividend yield (percentage) past performance during dividend payments, and catalysts such as Earnings Reports that could affect the price of the security. The premise of this theory is to buy 1 stock every day of this week for an overnight hold, hold through the day of the ex-div date (unless a break even opportunity arises), and find a point to sell the next day in order to break even or make profit. (EX: Buy stock Monday, Ex-div is Tuesday, sell the stock on Wednesday) If all goes well, we should be able to profit from 5 different dividend payments on the same $1000 of capital.
The Stocks I'm Choosing For This Experiment
The first stock listed for each day is my main choice, whilst the rest are alternates in case of price action working against me. The stocks are shown on each that would be the last day for entry to be registered for the dividend. Theoretically, if I can play each first choice without taking a loss on any of the positions, it should work out to (based on $1000 invested) $57.11, or 5.71%. Due to the fact that with this experiment I will only be using $1000 and commissions alone would put me in net negative, I will be using Robinhood to execute all trades.
Bonus Objectives:
1. Sell each stock ON the ex-div date so as to reduce the holding time.
2. Sell each stock for a profit to maximize returns
I will be posting the results at the end of the week.
1:https://www.thestreet.com/story/11785758/1/when-must-i-buy-a-stock-to-get-the-dividend.html
2:http://www.investopedia.com/university/introduction-to-dividends/important-terms-to-know-and-other-basics.asp
3:http://www.investopedia.com/university/introduction-to-dividends/
What Is A Dividend?
A dividend is a distribution of a portion of a company's earnings to a class of its shareholders. Dividends can be in the form of cash, stock, and less commonly, property. Most stable companies offer dividends to shareholders. 3
When is the cutoff to get in for a Dividend?
The trickiest part of dividends is to best understand when the latest possible time to enter the security is. There are several dates that are provided when looking at a stocks dividend: The Declaration Date, The Ex/Effective Date, The Record Date, and The Payment Date.
Declaration Date: The date that the company announced their upcoming dividend.
Ex/Effective Date: The deadline date to own shares to register for the dividend.
Record Date: The date the company uses to determine it's shareholders or "holders on record".
Payment Date: The date a declared dividend is scheduled to be paid. 2
Now what is important to note is that stocks take 3 days to settle. That means you need to buy a stock three days before the record date in order to qualify for the dividend. Further complicating matters, the ex-date falls two trading days before the date by which you need to be a shareholder of record. We've established that the must-own date falls three days before the record date, so simple subtraction means that you must buy a stock one day before it goes ex-dividend. 1
With that in mind, an investor can technically buy a stock at 3:59 p.m. EST on the day before the Ex-div date and sell it at 9:31 a.m. EST the next morning and still receive the dividend in their account. 1
Why Doesn't Everyone Do This?
Now with the way the process was just laid out, you may be asking why everyone doesn't just use this to their advantage. There is a catch. Stocks typically auto-depreciate on the ex-div date by the amount of the dividend. This is done to deter people from abusing this system.
But with careful planning it may be possible to play this system after all.
For this theory, I have gone through the list of every stock that is paying dividends on the week of 10/24-10/28 (The week this was written) and looked into its price action, dividend yield (percentage) past performance during dividend payments, and catalysts such as Earnings Reports that could affect the price of the security. The premise of this theory is to buy 1 stock every day of this week for an overnight hold, hold through the day of the ex-div date (unless a break even opportunity arises), and find a point to sell the next day in order to break even or make profit. (EX: Buy stock Monday, Ex-div is Tuesday, sell the stock on Wednesday) If all goes well, we should be able to profit from 5 different dividend payments on the same $1000 of capital.
The Stocks I'm Choosing For This Experiment
The first stock listed for each day is my main choice, whilst the rest are alternates in case of price action working against me. The stocks are shown on each that would be the last day for entry to be registered for the dividend. Theoretically, if I can play each first choice without taking a loss on any of the positions, it should work out to (based on $1000 invested) $57.11, or 5.71%. Due to the fact that with this experiment I will only be using $1000 and commissions alone would put me in net negative, I will be using Robinhood to execute all trades.
Bonus Objectives:
1. Sell each stock ON the ex-div date so as to reduce the holding time.
2. Sell each stock for a profit to maximize returns
I will be posting the results at the end of the week.
1:https://www.thestreet.com/story/11785758/1/when-must-i-buy-a-stock-to-get-the-dividend.html
2:http://www.investopedia.com/university/introduction-to-dividends/important-terms-to-know-and-other-basics.asp
3:http://www.investopedia.com/university/introduction-to-dividends/
WL 10/24/16
Pumped Up Kicks
Seems there is a lot of users trying to pump up low float stocks, so they received their own tab on the WL. The 2 main notables are KONE and KOOL. These two have had the most chatter over the weekend.
CVM- Up 16% on Friday for beginning a response to the FDA after dropping from the .40s late september. This ticker has a nice looking chart if it can receive some buy volume. Broke .24 pivot and held above it, so we are looking for it to move above .25 and test .264 pivot. if that breaks a good PT is .28.
TRCH- broke upward from .70s to test .93 pivot. Did not break it but closed very strong and held well above .85 pivot. Buy volume to push this above .93 would be a very bullish signal, with a $1.05 PT.
AKS- Steel play moving on chatter that steel prices have bottomed. Has ER on 10-25 PM so may continue hype upward from current price. Needs to break above $5.25 pivot for continuation upward. $5.50 is next pivot then $6 psychological resistance. PT $5.70
QTM (Swing)- Excellent 3 month chart, was called out in chat at .81 and proceeded to move higher. Has ER after market on 10-26 so could hype up before then. Preliminary report shows ER as a beat, and only concern on the table with this Co was to secure financing for 2017, which they did on 10-21. Strong bullish technical signals on the break of .80. $0.95 is next pivot, then $1.00 psychological resistance. Followed by $1.05 strong historical pivot. If $1.05 breaks with volume then this can have strong upward movement. If $1.05 fails to break then stop loss will be set at $0.99. PT $1.20
Seems there is a lot of users trying to pump up low float stocks, so they received their own tab on the WL. The 2 main notables are KONE and KOOL. These two have had the most chatter over the weekend.
CVM- Up 16% on Friday for beginning a response to the FDA after dropping from the .40s late september. This ticker has a nice looking chart if it can receive some buy volume. Broke .24 pivot and held above it, so we are looking for it to move above .25 and test .264 pivot. if that breaks a good PT is .28.
TRCH- broke upward from .70s to test .93 pivot. Did not break it but closed very strong and held well above .85 pivot. Buy volume to push this above .93 would be a very bullish signal, with a $1.05 PT.
AKS- Steel play moving on chatter that steel prices have bottomed. Has ER on 10-25 PM so may continue hype upward from current price. Needs to break above $5.25 pivot for continuation upward. $5.50 is next pivot then $6 psychological resistance. PT $5.70
QTM (Swing)- Excellent 3 month chart, was called out in chat at .81 and proceeded to move higher. Has ER after market on 10-26 so could hype up before then. Preliminary report shows ER as a beat, and only concern on the table with this Co was to secure financing for 2017, which they did on 10-21. Strong bullish technical signals on the break of .80. $0.95 is next pivot, then $1.00 psychological resistance. Followed by $1.05 strong historical pivot. If $1.05 breaks with volume then this can have strong upward movement. If $1.05 fails to break then stop loss will be set at $0.99. PT $1.20
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
WL 10/19/16
Tuesday can basically be deemed "Bio Day" due to the amount of attention Biotech stocks received. So naturally many of the tickers on Wednesday's watch list are Bios!
ABEO***- Reaching a new 52w high, this stock has been on a rampage the past 3 months from $2. Will be watching for the break of $8.10 (Tuesdays HOD) for continued uptrend. If it breaks $8.10 with strong volume it could push all the way to $10 by the end of the week.
RTTR**- Another massive bio mover, Hit the 3 month high intraday ($2.47) and was met with resistance. If the move is warranted, then we should see a retest and likely break of this level towards new highs.
AMRS*- Naturally a top choice on the watchlist. Saw as high as $1.13 in after hours trading. Quickly tested $1 as support intraday and swiftly bounced. Looking at the first PT being $1.40. with a longer term PT of $2.00 to $2.70.
BSPM*- Low float runner that just couldnt find enough strength to make huge gains. Dumped EOD. News after hours of the closing of their registered direct financing; with the average cost of the shares sold at $4.50. May likely see some upside tomorrow at least to that $4.50 range.
(BANC)- Dont have much DD on this, but was a massive drop due to an expose seeking alpha article written by a short seller. Unsure of any facts being true. Hit a low of $10.77 before returning in AH to $11.63. May likely be a bottom play as developments on the story are released.
ABEO***- Reaching a new 52w high, this stock has been on a rampage the past 3 months from $2. Will be watching for the break of $8.10 (Tuesdays HOD) for continued uptrend. If it breaks $8.10 with strong volume it could push all the way to $10 by the end of the week.
RTTR**- Another massive bio mover, Hit the 3 month high intraday ($2.47) and was met with resistance. If the move is warranted, then we should see a retest and likely break of this level towards new highs.
AMRS*- Naturally a top choice on the watchlist. Saw as high as $1.13 in after hours trading. Quickly tested $1 as support intraday and swiftly bounced. Looking at the first PT being $1.40. with a longer term PT of $2.00 to $2.70.
BSPM*- Low float runner that just couldnt find enough strength to make huge gains. Dumped EOD. News after hours of the closing of their registered direct financing; with the average cost of the shares sold at $4.50. May likely see some upside tomorrow at least to that $4.50 range.
(BANC)- Dont have much DD on this, but was a massive drop due to an expose seeking alpha article written by a short seller. Unsure of any facts being true. Hit a low of $10.77 before returning in AH to $11.63. May likely be a bottom play as developments on the story are released.
Monday, October 17, 2016
WL 10/18/16
AMRS- Great bounce today off of $0.75 to end up back at $0.89. Looking for Retest of $1.00 tomorrow and likely break through on volume. This is my long play for a couple more months. PT levels; $1.40, $2.00, $2.70.
OPTT- Closed very strong today after recently holding a secondary offering. Low float stock. Will watch for a break of $3.50 tomorrow with volume to fill the gap to $3.90.
CTRV- Another strong stock after recent trial results. Pulled back nicely from the high of $2.65 to settle in the $2.30s. Expecting a dip in the morning as low as $2 before a likely continuation higher due to the catalyst.
Bottom Plays:
CRBP- Took a big tumble yesterday, will look to see if if can recover above $7.30 today for reversal.
PTCT- Pending news of a cancelled trial caused this to tumble. If news comes out that this is not the case expect a full reversal for some quick gains.
OPTT- Closed very strong today after recently holding a secondary offering. Low float stock. Will watch for a break of $3.50 tomorrow with volume to fill the gap to $3.90.
CTRV- Another strong stock after recent trial results. Pulled back nicely from the high of $2.65 to settle in the $2.30s. Expecting a dip in the morning as low as $2 before a likely continuation higher due to the catalyst.
Bottom Plays:
CRBP- Took a big tumble yesterday, will look to see if if can recover above $7.30 today for reversal.
PTCT- Pending news of a cancelled trial caused this to tumble. If news comes out that this is not the case expect a full reversal for some quick gains.
Thursday, October 13, 2016
WL 10/14/16
Decided to go with this format again since it allows quick access to many charts and tickers.
AMRS- Strong PR today increasing 2017 Revenue by 100m, the chart made a strong move and tested $1.00. Eventually came back and tested .80 and held as support. Still my number one choice in this current market.
GNCA- Purely technical play, showing strong moves off of its bottom. Likely continuation is possible. Remember that its Friday though, and people may be looking to exit positions.
TRX: Recently made a bounce off of its strong historic pivot at .65. Currently at .70. Mainly interested in this tomorrow for entry to hold into next week.
AMRS- Strong PR today increasing 2017 Revenue by 100m, the chart made a strong move and tested $1.00. Eventually came back and tested .80 and held as support. Still my number one choice in this current market.
GNCA- Purely technical play, showing strong moves off of its bottom. Likely continuation is possible. Remember that its Friday though, and people may be looking to exit positions.
TRX: Recently made a bounce off of its strong historic pivot at .65. Currently at .70. Mainly interested in this tomorrow for entry to hold into next week.
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
WL 10/13/16
With futures down, and so many half baked plays, I decided this would be a better format for our Watch List for tomorrow. It allows us to have many interesting tickers on the Watch List which all have potential from their current positions. If our markets get slammed tomorrow, its likely that most of these will not be in play.
The Main ones to point out are-
AAMC- Huge parabolic move on no news, no catalyst at all. Small market cap and a small float. Seems to me a junk company getting pumped huge. This may either end up being a great swing play or a great short tomorrow; will depend on when the gravy train ends. NOTE: This has moved from $60 to $1200 in the past (you read that right).
AMRS- Moving above the .70 pivot today and holding strong near the HOD, this stock definitely has a strong uptrend and it should be expected under fair market conditions that it will contest and possibly break .80.
AAMC- Huge parabolic move on no news, no catalyst at all. Small market cap and a small float. Seems to me a junk company getting pumped huge. This may either end up being a great swing play or a great short tomorrow; will depend on when the gravy train ends. NOTE: This has moved from $60 to $1200 in the past (you read that right).
AMRS- Moving above the .70 pivot today and holding strong near the HOD, this stock definitely has a strong uptrend and it should be expected under fair market conditions that it will contest and possibly break .80.
GSR- This is a gold mining play I decided to hold overnight, as I believe gold will be up tomorrow regardless of market conditions. Purely a sympathy play of the commodity and nothing more.
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
ENH Quick Valuation
Just some basic valuation models and examples, some may not be completely correlative to be precise. Just wanted to get you all an idea of why a valuation could be $6.5bln.
Price points from the results are in bold.
O/S 67.74m
Assets: $14.8bln
-goodwill:$0.511bln
= $14.289bln
-Liabilities: $9.72bln
$4.56bln shareholder equity
X 27% average buyout premium = $5.8bln ($85.62 PPS Baseline, brand not considered)
If Goodwill considered: $0.511bln +27%= $0.648bln
+$5.8bln= $6.44897bln ($95.20 PPS)
Income: 310m +27%
= $393m or .393bln
$73.44 Book/sh
+$16.14 cash/sh
=$89.58
+ Div yield 2.34%
=$91.67
X67.74m O/s
= $6.209bln ($91.67 PPS)
+.393bln Income
=$6.602bln ($97.46 PPS)
Key approximate levels until we have confirmation of buyout price:
$5.8bln ($85.62 PPS Baseline, brand not considered)
$6.209bln ($91.67 PPS)
$6.44897bln ($95.20 PPS)
$6.602bln ($97.46 PPS)
mean of 4 valuation figures above= $6.265bln ($92.48 PPS)
Price points from the results are in bold.
O/S 67.74m
Assets: $14.8bln
-goodwill:$0.511bln
= $14.289bln
-Liabilities: $9.72bln
$4.56bln shareholder equity
X 27% average buyout premium = $5.8bln ($85.62 PPS Baseline, brand not considered)
If Goodwill considered: $0.511bln +27%= $0.648bln
+$5.8bln= $6.44897bln ($95.20 PPS)
Income: 310m +27%
= $393m or .393bln
$73.44 Book/sh
+$16.14 cash/sh
=$89.58
+ Div yield 2.34%
=$91.67
X67.74m O/s
= $6.209bln ($91.67 PPS)
+.393bln Income
=$6.602bln ($97.46 PPS)
Key approximate levels until we have confirmation of buyout price:
$5.8bln ($85.62 PPS Baseline, brand not considered)
$6.209bln ($91.67 PPS)
$6.44897bln ($95.20 PPS)
$6.602bln ($97.46 PPS)
mean of 4 valuation figures above= $6.265bln ($92.48 PPS)
Monday, October 3, 2016
Watchlist 10/4/16
Saturday, October 1, 2016
COSI- What's the situation and how much is it worth?
With the news of COSI's bankruptcy filing, and the influx of traders moving in to snag shares on the cheap for a quick play, many who decided to hold for a longer period than just a few hours are mezmorized by the fact that the stock price didnt just tank again. This has left many traders in a position of holding this stock longer than they normally would have, and feel optimism of a spike and/or recovery that could yield huge returns. Yet, most traders do not know the real story of whats going on behind the scenes, or what the valuation of this stock really is. This post will give you every piece of information you need to fully understand the situation, and to plan your strategy in this trade ahead of time.
NOTE: If you just want the numbers, please scroll down to the section where the text is highlighted green.
This weeks news was Strange (Cause for Concern!)
So this week we had a flurry of events that occured that all suggest an increasing tension of global politics. Separately, they may not seem like much, but when you look at them together, it makes you ponder.
MONDAY: Columbia finally finds peace after over 50 years of civil war:
http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-colombia-peace-20160925-snap-story.html
WEDNESDAY: Israeli Prime Minister Dies:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/09/28/former-israeli-prime-minister-president-shimon-peres-dead-at-93.html
School shooting in South Carolina:
http://bearingarms.com/bob-o/2016/09/28/breaking-injuries-reported-townville-elementary-school-shooting/
THURSDAY: India launches strikes at Pakistan after many years of fueled tension:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-says-it-launched-strikes-pakistan-controlled-kashmir-n656631
New Jersey Train crashes, no rationale has been released yet:
http://nypost.com/2016/09/29/train-crashes-in-new-jersey-station-several-injuries-reported/
Kerry Threatens to end talks with Russia over Syria:
West
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/Kerry-Threatens-to-End-Syria-Cease-Fire-Talks-With-Russia-Aleppo-Bombings-395368841.html
East
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/Kerry-Threatens-to-End-Syria-Cease-Fire-Talks-With-Russia-Aleppo-Bombings-395368841.html
Also, Deutche Bank woes, more syrian attacks, Very peculiar week indeed.
MONDAY: Columbia finally finds peace after over 50 years of civil war:
http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-colombia-peace-20160925-snap-story.html
WEDNESDAY: Israeli Prime Minister Dies:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/09/28/former-israeli-prime-minister-president-shimon-peres-dead-at-93.html
School shooting in South Carolina:
http://bearingarms.com/bob-o/2016/09/28/breaking-injuries-reported-townville-elementary-school-shooting/
THURSDAY: India launches strikes at Pakistan after many years of fueled tension:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-says-it-launched-strikes-pakistan-controlled-kashmir-n656631
New Jersey Train crashes, no rationale has been released yet:
http://nypost.com/2016/09/29/train-crashes-in-new-jersey-station-several-injuries-reported/
Kerry Threatens to end talks with Russia over Syria:
West
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/Kerry-Threatens-to-End-Syria-Cease-Fire-Talks-With-Russia-Aleppo-Bombings-395368841.html
East
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/Kerry-Threatens-to-End-Syria-Cease-Fire-Talks-With-Russia-Aleppo-Bombings-395368841.html
Also, Deutche Bank woes, more syrian attacks, Very peculiar week indeed.
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